“Economic Outlook November 2025–2027”
ORANJESTAD (AAN): On Thursday, Minister of Finance, Economic Affairs & Primary Sector Geoffrey Wever presented the “Economic Outlook November 2025–2027” prepared by the Department of Economic Affairs, Commerce and Industry (DEACI). The report includes revised economic growth projections for 2025 and provides forecasts for 2026 and 2027 based on available economic data up to early October.
The new outlook shows that Aruba’s economy in 2025 is expected to grow more than what was projected in May. DEACI has revised the nominal economic growth forecast from 3.9% to 5.9%, bringing Aruba’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 7.8 billion Florins, the main indicator of economic activity.
For 2026, expectations remain positive. DEACI forecasts a nominal economic growth of 2.6%, raising GDP to 8.0 billion Florins. In 2027, Aruba’s economy is expected to continue growing by 1.9%, reaching 8.2 billion Florins in nominal terms.
The expansion of economic activity in 2025 is fueled by increases in tourism arrivals and strong consumer spending. This is supported by the reduction of the income tax rate from 10% to 0%, as well as the increase of the reparatietoeslag allowance to 250 Florins per month for pensioners as of May 1, 2025. The updated economic outlook aligns with projections from the Central Bank of Aruba and the International Monetary Fund.
- The Central Bank of Aruba forecasts nominal economic growth of 6.2% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026.
- According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (April 2025), Aruba is expected to grow 3.7% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026 in nominal terms.
To prepare its projections, DEACI uses the MARUBA macroeconomic model, based on Aruba’s Annual National Accounts published by the Central Bureau of Statistics. MARUBA reflects the structure and functioning of Aruba’s economy and is managed by DEACI. These projections are made possible through ongoing dialogue with local experts and continuous analysis of economic trends.
Monthly analysis of tax revenues—such as BBO and import duties—shows that Aruba’s economy has been performing better than in 2024. Today, DEACI, together with experts of the MacroModel Commission, confirms that Aruba’s economy is expected to grow by 5.6% in 2025 compared to 2024, according to Minister Wever.
The Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs & Primary Sector, in collaboration with DEACI, will continue monitoring Aruba’s economic developments.
Minister Geoffrey Wever expressed his appreciation to Director Maria Dijkhoff-Pita, the Department of Economic Policy & Research, and the MacroModel Commission for making the economic outlook possible.
For more information about the “Economic Outlook November 2025–2027,” visit the DEACI website: www.deaci.aw
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