The Banco Central di Aruba (BCA) has published its latest “Economic Outlook”, containing updated projections for Aruba’s public finances over the short term (2025–2026) and medium term (2027–2029).
According to the outlook, Aruba recorded a Fiscal Surplus Aruba in the first half of 2025 that exceeded the surplus from the same period in 2024. Higher tax revenues — largely driven by continued strength in the tourism sector — were the main contributors, although increased spending limited further improvement in the overall fiscal balance.
BCA data show that the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio improved, falling to an estimated 67.0% by mid‑2025, down from 68.6% at the end of 2024. This reflects effective fiscal management amid a still‑growing economy.
For the full year 2025, public finances are expected to show a larger fiscal surplus than in 2024, supported by moderate GDP growth and continued inflows from tourism activity. BCA anticipates that stronger tax receipts — including from income tax and sales taxes — will remain key drivers of higher revenues.
However, the outlook also indicates increased government spending for 2025, partly due to higher personal expenditures following wage indexation and elevated costs for goods, services, and capital investments. Despite this, lower interest payments due to reduced public debt are projected to partially offset spending pressures.
Over the 2026–2029 forecast period, BCA projects the fiscal surplus to persist, driven by ongoing economic expansion — particularly in tourism, consumption, and investment — although risks remain. These risks include potential external shocks from global geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in tourism demand.
The latest outlook underscores that Aruba’s economy continues to perform well, with fiscal discipline helping to strengthen public finances and contribute to long‑term economic resilience.
