The Stimson Center, a Washington D.C.–based research institution, in collaboration with Aruba’s National Climate Resilience Council and other strategic partners, has released the results of the Climate and Ocean Risk Vulnerability Initiative (CORVI) assessment for Aruba.
This comprehensive, island-wide assessment examines how climate change is reshaping Aruba’s environment, economy, and society. Under current emission trends, the island faces significant risks in the coming decades, including rising sea levels, intense and prolonged heat and drought, and coastal erosion — all of which threaten daily life, tourism, infrastructure, and financial stability.
The CORVI analysis identifies three main clusters of climate risk for Aruba:
- Declining Ecosystem Health
- Changing Demographic Patterns
- Vulnerabilities of a Tourism-Dependent Economy
These interconnected risks reveal how closely the well-being of Aruba’s people, ecosystems, and tourism-based economy are linked. The findings highlight urgent issues such as biodiversity loss, rapid urbanization, infrastructure strain, and the challenges of unregulated tourism growth, all of which heighten the island’s vulnerability to climate change.
Dr. Ryan R. Peterson, Chairman of the National Climate Resilience Council, emphasized the significance of the report’s findings:
“These findings remind us of the multiple vulnerabilities we face — from the direct risks to our coastal communities to the cascading effects on our economy and the most vulnerable in our community. The degradation of our coral reefs, rising heat, and fragile ecosystem balance are central to our survival and prosperity. Our economic well-being is inseparable from the health of our environment and society.”
CORVI provides policymakers with actionable, data-driven insights to guide resilience strategies. Using 94 indicators across environmental, social, and economic dimensions, the assessment highlights both urgent vulnerabilities and opportunities for stronger resilience planning — including ecosystem restoration, climate-resilient spatial development, and economic diversification.
Minister Geoffrey Wever, Minister of Finance, Economic Affairs, and Primary Sector, also underscored the report’s economic implications:
“Climate change is not a distant threat — it is a present and escalating financial risk. Rising seas, erosion, and extreme heat directly endanger our infrastructure and natural assets. Building climate resilience is an economic necessity and the foundation of our sustainable future.”
This CORVI report is the sixteenth conducted globally, following similar assessments in St. Kitts, Dominica, Barbados, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, and Belize. The collective findings across the Caribbean reveal a shared need for integrated planning, sustainable blue economies, and climate-smart infrastructure.
Carolyn Gruber, Deputy Director of the Stimson Center’s Environmental Security Program, highlighted the importance of this milestone for Aruba:
“By combining local insights with rigorous analysis, the CORVI results provide the foundation for Aruba’s National Climate Adaptation Plan. This partnership offers actionable, place-based recommendations to guide Aruba’s climate-resilient future.”
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